🚀 Bitcoin’s Six 6-Month Green Candles: Supercycle Ignition or Wave V Exhaustion?

Corporations are stacking BTC, sovereigns eye it as a reserve asset, and thought leaders call for $1M Bitcoin. But with declining volume, is this streak a sign of strength…

Sep 14, 2025

⚡ Bottom Line Up Front:
Bitcoin’s six 6-month green streak is a watershed moment. It either confirms the birth of Bitcoin as a global strategic reserve asset — or sets up the sharpest correction of this cycle. Either way, the next year will determine whether $120K was resistance… or just the launchpad on the way to $1M.

💡 Quote of the Week

"When currencies fail, they fail epically. Bitcoin is the escape valve." – Samson Mow

📊 The Historic Signal

Bitcoin has now posted six consecutive 6-month green candles — a feat never seen before. That’s three years of sustained half-year gains. On TradingView, the 6M chart is screaming strength, but technicians also see something else: declining trading volume.

Higher highs with weaker participation is a classic divergence. The question is whether this represents quiet institutional accumulation… or the fading of trend energy before reversal.

📈 Elliott Wave Lens

Using Elliott Wave theory, this streak could mark:

Wave III: the powerful extension phase, with ETFs and corporate treasuries driving a structural bid.
Wave V: the euphoric exhaustion push, where price advances but volume wanes — a setup for correction.

The count matters: is this the middle of a supercycle, or the end of one?

🌍 Macro Shift: ETFs, Corporates & Sovereigns Step In

This cycle is unlike any before it.

BlackRock bought $1B in Bitcoin this week alone.
Corporates: Firms like MicroStrategy, Galaxy Digital, and even Chinese listed companies (like CPOP) are now putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet. Treasuries are treating BTC as a hedge, not a trade.
Sovereigns: El Salvador planted the flag, but now Russia is considering a state-backed Bitcoin bank, Africa has its first BTC treasury company, and Hong Kong is easing bank rules for Bitcoin. Nepal and others are turning to BTC during unrest.

This is the strategic reserve asset thesis in action: Bitcoin as neutral, programmable collateral in a world of weakening fiat.

⚠️ Volume Divergence: Canary in the Coal Mine

Despite record ETF inflows and sovereign headlines, the 6M volume trend is down. That can mean:

New market structure: Big money is concentrating flows — fewer trades, deeper pockets.
Exhaustion risk: Rally is running on fumes; once the bid fades, correction could be violent.

🔮 What’s Next: 3–6 Months vs 1 Year

3–6 Months: Expect turbulence around $120K–$130K. Could be a Wave III consolidation before the next leg — or the start of a Wave V reversal. A pullback to $90K–100K would be healthy.
1 Year: If the supercycle thesis holds, Bitcoin could range in low 100Ks before repricing higher. Projections: $150K–$250K. If Samson Mow is right, a fiat crisis could trigger a violent move toward $1M.
Bear Case: If this was Wave V exhaustion, the next 6M red candle could mark the top of this cycle.

🗣 Voices Calling $1M

Michael Saylor: “When Bitcoin is $1M a coin, I’ll buy $1B of it, probably in one day.”
Winklevoss Twins: “Bitcoin is going up 10x from here. HODL.”
Samson Mow: “When currencies fail, they fail epically.” Bitcoin, he argues, will be the exit valve — and could rocket to $1M+ faster than anyone expects.
Max Keiser, Novogratz, ARK Invest, and others: many thought leaders now point to $1M by 2030 as base case, not fantasy.
Chamath Palihapitiya: "Bitcoin is going to $1,140,000 this cycle. It is going to completely replace gold."

❓ Question of the Week

With Bitcoin defying its 4-year cycle, corporates and sovereigns stacking BTC, and thought leaders calling for $1M, are we in the middle of a supercycle ignition — or about to witness the first 6-month red candle in three years?

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