BTC Finds Its Floor? Or Just Practicing Falling With Style
Bids rebuild at $105K–$111K while headlines audition for a doomsday podcast. ETFs keep sipping. Stablecoin plumbers install bigger pipes.
Quote of the Day
“Markets rarely reward bravado; they reliably reward discipline.”
Narrative
Today the chart yelled “panic,” the data shrugged “Tuesday.” Bitcoin slid into key support, headlines moaned about “fading optimism,” and traders dared the yearly open at ~$107K to blink. Instead, books refilled with bids from $105K–$111K, which is market-speak for: “We don’t love you right now, but we’re not breaking up.”
The flush looked like controlled deleveraging—not a waterfall, just leverage getting a reality check. Citi reminded everyone that BTC still has equity beta (yes, macro exists), and the BTC–gold correlation ticked up because when growth jitters hit, markets remember Bitcoin’s store-of-value cosplay. Meanwhile, BTC dominance regained ground over ETH, helped by the usual political spats and the timeless urge to hide in the biggest balance sheet (spot ETFs say hi).
On the network side, Bitcoin Core v30 chatter bubbled (open source = cat herding with code). The obligatory “quantum will crack Bitcoin soon™” think-pieces resurfaced; wake me when there’s a production migration plan and a quantum box that doesn’t need Antarctica for cooling. Miners kept rebranding as AI-flavored data centers—Bitfarms hired an ex-Lazard CFO—while celebrity capital circled mining like it’s 2013 but with less denim.
Ethereum dropped ~8% but kept building: the Fusaka upgrade is live on Sepolia with December mainnet in sight. Traders still whisper “$10K ETH,” but first you politely reclaim $4.8K and stop tripping over it. Alt chatter was… alt chatter. Rotation historically returns after BTC stabilizes and ETF flows stop acting like a metronome.
The adult table today was stablecoins. Stripe’s Bridge applied for a national trust charter, S&P Global put stablecoin risk ratings on-chain (via Chainlink), and multiple shops crowned USDC the institutional horse for a slice of the $20T cross-border payments pie. Translation: the rails are institutionalizing; bigger checks are coming, and they don’t use MetaMask on their lunch break.
ETFs kept the quiet flex: IBIT took inflows on red candles, and Amundi prepping a European BTC ETF means Europe is bringing snacks. Rumors about tactical selling ahead of central-bank speeches are fun, but pipelines—not tweets—drive cycles.
Policy did its 2025 impression: U.S. frameworks stalled (again), a GOP bill eyed 401(k) crypto access, Kenya pushed a crypto law, and courts tossed Celsius a ~$300M bone (not their dream $4.3B, but sure). Law enforcement’s headline: a $14B BTC seizure from a pig-butchering ring. Block explorers: undefeated since forever.
Bottom line: Price did cardio. Structure kept lifting. Hold $107K–$111K and keep ETF/stablecoin pipes flowing, and the path of least resistance is still up—just with more squats than sprints.
Market Snapshot
Bitcoin: Bids rebuilt $105K–$111K; $107K (yearly open) is the “do not break.” Lose it → deeper jog. Daily close > $120K → trend-resumption energy.
Ethereum: Fusaka on Sepolia; $4.8K is the lid to beat. Rotation wants BTC stability + rising ETH/BTC—in that order.
Stablecoins: Trust charters + on-chain risk ratings + custody integrations = rails going from plywood to steel. Watch USDC growth as the flow proxy.
ETFs: IBIT inflows amid red price action; Amundi lining up a BTC ETF adds a European firehose.
Mining/Infra: “AI-adjacent” pivots continue—follow capex, not copium.
Voices (today’s chorus, harmonized)
Peter Brandt — added 5% BTC to retirement. Translation: the chart guy just put skin in the long-term game.
Richard Teng (Binance) — says multiple countries are buying BTC for reserves. Nation-states discovering DCA? That escalated quickly.
JPMorgan — “We’re cautious”… also “clients can trade crypto next year.” Corporate for: see you at the top.
Dan Morehead (Pantera) — Saylor changed his playbook. When the macro guy copies the maxi, the regime shifted.
Jack Dorsey — hard-money PSA: you can’t print more Bitcoin. (You can print hotter takes.)
Samson Mow — bull market “behind schedule,” expects nation-state FOMO and a massive run-up. Calendar set to “soon™.”
Henrik Zeberg — calls BTC an “extreme bubble” set to “crash horrendously.” Every wall of worry needs a mural.
Net read: From doomer macro to laser-eyed exuberance, the spectrum is wide. The pipes (ETFs/stables) still lean net supportive while price does cardio.
What to Watch (next 24–72h)
Levels: BTC $107K (floor), $111K (pivot), $120K (confirmation). ETH $4.8K reclaim.
Flows: Spot-ETF net inflows, stablecoin issuance (USDC/USDT), exchange BTC balances (tight float = spicy rebounds).
Derivatives: Funding normalization post-flush; perp OI/market-cap staying tame; options IV/skew into Friday = fear/greed truth serum.
Narratives: Quantum clickbait vs. actual security roadmaps; “4-year cycle is dead” vs. “ETFs create their own cycle.”
Question of the Day
BTC is camping on $107K–$111K. What’s your rule this week?
Scale in with pre-set ladders into the zone
Hedge pops with short-dated puts and keep powder dry
Wait for a daily close > $120K before adding risk
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