Anyway—Porsche 986 is still out, leaves are down, and so might be the market. Let’s lay out both sides cleanly.
THE BEAR CASE
We keep ping-ponging: $115K → $98–100K → $106–107K → back to ~$100–103K. That’s a classic lower-high, lower-low rhythm.
Macro is gross: rising late payments (autos, cards, some mortgages), prices whipsawing on basic goods, and “macroeconomic causes” quietly pushing quotes up 10–20% overnight.
Government shutdown = the largest U.S. employer freezing paychecks and services. Fewer flights, fewer trips, fewer swipes—real GDP flow gets clipped right into holiday booking season.
Self-fulfilling risk: fear + cash-flow hits → companies miss → layoffs → more fear. If that loop spins, $30K isn’t crazy. Ugly? Yes. Impossible? No.
MY TAKE
It’s very easy to be bearish today—and if the shutdown drags, it amplifies the pain exactly when travel/retail should be filling the pipe.
THE BULL CASE
A lot of this sell-pressure is temporary and policy-driven. If the shutdown ends and checks resume, money flow normalizes quickly.
Rate path could surprise. A bigger-than-priced December cut (or a more dovish track) is rocket fuel.
ETFs/institutions aren’t 2017 retail—they dampen blow-offs and fund steady bids.
The “1064/364 days” numerology is cute; it’s not destiny. Markets don’t orbit Cassiopeia.
MY TAKE
If policy headwinds ease, this looks more like mid-cycle chop than lights-out. The spine of this market (ETFs, custody, tokenization) didn’t exist in past cycles.
WHAT STILL HASN’T HAPPENED (IF THIS WAS “THE TOP”)
No classic blow-off characteristics.
RSI never hit typical mania extremes.
Fear & Greed never printed true euphoria.
No traditional alt season blow-off.
Structural buyers (ETFs, corporates) are still… buying.
If we call the top here, we’re declaring a brand-new playbook—where only the four-year clock matters and every other historical signal got tossed. I’m not there.
THE 50-WEEK PIVOT
Price is testing the 50-week MA from above. It’s acting as support, not resistance. That’s a big difference from bear-market behavior.
As long as that 50-week holds on weekly closes, the burden of proof stays with the bears.
WHY THE SHUTDOWN MATTERS MORE THAN A TWEET
This isn’t vibes. It’s payrolls paused, contracts delayed, flights trimmed—literal circulation of dollars throttled. Holidays get booked now; if bookings stall, Q4/Q1 guides get cut. Markets will price that before headlines admit it.
If you want the quick bull trigger: reopen the government. Then reassess.
LISTENER NOTES (KEEP ‘EM COMING)
“Stop the hopium.” → Fair. I don’t know the future either. I’m laying out both credible paths.
“$30K is possible.” → Yep. Path exists. Doesn’t mean it’s probable—but dismissing it would be unserious.
“Paper BTC & exchange games.” → If any big venue’s running fractional nonsense, redemption stress will out them. That’s why self-custody and transparent venues matter in chop.
Plan > prediction. If you’re buying, define invalidation. If you’re trimming, define re-entry. No heroics.
BOTTOM LINE
We might be in a bearish window, but we don’t have a confirmed new bear market. Not with the 50-week still holding, no true euphoria printed, and institutions still allocating. End the shutdown, see the next Fed step, and re-check those signals. Until then, it’s prudent to treat this as mid-cycle volatility—with real downside tails you should respect.
Happy HODLing, Everyone.
