Could Bitcoin Really Experience a Bear Market in 2026?
A Calm, Grown-Up Look at the Possibility — Without the Panic
Hey folks I am back but I don’t have a lot of time. Here is the deal I am sure many will say is this all this guy can do is post pricing articles? Umm maybe but here is the deal. I have a “LOT” of people who are constantly asking me if they should buy or sell and I can’t provide financial advice but I can share with them what I read, watch, and listen to in hopes that they use their own brains and situation to know what’s best for them. My desire (as someone who’s been through several cycles) is to remember what goes up does come down at some point. NEVER EVER EVER in Bitcoin’s history has Bitcoin ever went up in a straight line and never come back. Do what you will with this information but hopefully it’s helpful.
Quote of the Day
“Discipline is built in the quiet moments — not the dramatic ones.”
There’s a new headline floating around crypto Twitter:
“Bitcoin to Bottom Out in 300 Days: Top Expert Forecasts $38,000 to $50,000 Price Point.”
Which sounds dramatic — like the kind of thing meant to make you click, clutch your ledger, and consider taking up indoor gardening while Bitcoin “figures itself out.”
So let’s unpack this without fear-mongering, hopium, or those memes of burning buildings with people saying “Everything is fine.”
What This Forecast Is Actually Saying
The argument is that Bitcoin has already completed (or is close to completing) its first major bull leg of this cycle. If that’s true, then sometime in within the next month → mid-2026, Bitcoin could do what Bitcoin always does after a strong run:
Cool off
Pull back hard enough to humble the cocky
And give disciplined accumulators the buying opportunities of their lives
The article cites analyst Ali Martinez, who notes that the average time from a cycle peak to a bottom historically averages around 300 days, and that bottoms in prior cycles have typically retraced 50–70%.
Which leads to the headline number:
$38,000–$50,000
Yes, that would feel uncomfortable.
But no, it would not be “the end.”
It would be textbook cycle behavior.
Could That Really Happen in 2026?
Yes. It’s absolutely possible.
And here’s why:
This doesn’t mean 2026 must be a disaster.
But it does mean 2026 could be the “accumulation year” in this cycle.
And historically — accumulation years are where future millionaires are minted.
But Wait — How Accurate Is Ali Martinez?
This is important.
Ali does good work when he’s:
analyzing on-chain flows,
identifying key support levels,
or framing scenarios conditionally (e.g., “If price holds X, then Y unlocks”).
However:
He has also made some bold, headline-friendly calls over the years that did not play out in either timing or magnitude.
Examples:
Called for $220K by early-2025 — didn’t happen.
Warned of a 75% drawdown in mid-2025 — we corrected, but nowhere close to that.
Projected cycle tops earlier than they actually formed.
This does not make him unreliable.
It simply means he is a scenario-based analyst, not a prophet.
The Right Way to Use His Work
Treat it as:
Signal — not scripture.
A map — not the destination.
His current call — a potential bottom around $38K–$50K — should be viewed as:
A possible accumulation zone
Not a guaranteed future price
Okay — So What Should We Actually Do With This Information?
This is where maturity comes in.
If we DO get a 2026 pullback? I hope you have dry powder
Great.
That’s your discount year.
Your buy-the-dip-but-do-it-calmly year.
If we DON’T? I hope you have “some” Satoshis
Also great.
The trend remains your friend.
Either outcome is fine if you have a plan.
The Real Question Isn’t:
“Will Bitcoin hit $38K in 2026?”
It’s:
“Will I be emotionally stable enough to take advantage if it does?”
Because most people don’t lose in Bitcoin because they “picked the wrong prediction.”
They lose because they:
Panic buy
Panic sell
Or refuse to act when opportunity is loud and obvious
✨ Takeaway
Either way:
The future winner is the one who stays steady.
Not the loudest voice.
Not the most confident prediction.
Not the person who called “the exact top.”
The person who shows up consistently.
WHAT TO WATCH
LISTEN TO THIS!