Craig kicked off the week watching two things: geopolitical uncertainty and the S&P 500. With the U.S. and Israel striking Iran, markets opened with heightened volatility, and S&P futures immediately gapped lower more than one percent. For Craig, that matters because he views Bitcoin as a liquidity asset. Despite the “digital gold” narrative, Bitcoin has traded far more like a tech stock than a hedge in 2025. If the S&P breaks down with momentum, he believes Bitcoin likely follows.
Check Craig out at www.thegrowmeco.com
He’s been flagging S&P consolidation for weeks. Now we are testing that support for the third time. If that level gives way decisively, Craig expects a deeper pullback in equities. And if that happens, he believes crypto will see further downside.
Turning to Bitcoin, the structure remains consistent with what he has described in prior bear phases. Big move down. Consolidation. Big move down. Consolidation. He pointed to past examples where long periods of sideways action eventually broke sharply lower. In his view, the current environment looks similar. Bitcoin has now closed down six consecutive weeks. There is no meaningful bounce in sight.
He is not viewing this consolidation as accumulation. He is looking for lower. If Bitcoin does rally, he expects it may retest the area where the monthly uptrend broke — what he calls the “cradle zone” — which could provide strong shorting opportunities. Until then, he sees this as a waiting period before a potential next leg down.
He also cautioned against trading narratives. Last week’s 6% spike on the Jane Street manipulation chatter has already faded from conversation, replaced by war headlines. Narratives shift quickly. Charts matter more.
Despite the broader weakness, Craig noted that his trading community still found solid setups last week, both long and short. His approach remains process-driven: scan daily, wait for structured setups, execute according to plan.
For now, the macro read is straightforward. Consolidation remains in play. Volatility is elevated. Equities look vulnerable. And unless structure shifts meaningfully, Craig’s bias remains toward further downside before the next major upside cycle begins.
