Craig walked through this week’s market action from a trader’s point of view, and the key takeaway was simple: the trend broke. On the monthly chart, Bitcoin shifted from a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows into a higher high followed by a lower low. For Craig, that single change flips the macro picture. Once that level gave way, Bitcoin moved from an uptrend into a downtrend, and that is where his plan required him to step aside.
This was not a position he wanted to exit. He had been in Bitcoin since August 2023 and was comfortable riding through pullbacks while the broader trend remained intact. What made this move different was not just the depth of the decline, but the uncertainty layered on top of it. Delays around regulatory clarity, unresolved fallout from the October 10th Binance-related stress, and continued weakening across the market created conditions where confidence kept eroding. Markets hate uncertainty, and Craig said that clearly showed up in the charts.
The drawdown itself was severe, roughly a 33 percent move lower, and while pullbacks of that size can happen in bull markets, they usually occur while the higher timeframe trend remains intact. This time, the monthly structure failed. From Craig’s perspective, that changes the rules. He does not want to be long an asset that is no longer in an uptrend, especially on the timeframe he uses to frame his investments.
What he is waiting for now is calm. He wants to see structure return on the daily timeframe before committing capital again. If Bitcoin continues lower, he may begin placing limit orders, but only once the dust settles enough to define risk clearly. If the market rebounds strongly and he has to re-enter at higher prices than where he exited, he is comfortable with that outcome. What he is not comfortable with is staying exposed while the macro trend is broken and uncertainty dominates.
Craig also outlined what he believes would be needed for a meaningful recovery. Regulatory clarity passing in a form the industry can actually work with would help. So would broader macro catalysts such as rate cuts or liquidity injections, especially if traditional markets begin to stall or pull back. Until then, being in cash is still a position, and for now, it is the one that allows him to manage risk and sleep at night.
His message was not panic, and it was not prediction. It was discipline. Make a plan, execute it when conditions change, and wait patiently for the next high-probability setup to appear.
Happy HODLing
