🌙 Evening Brief: Bitcoin Is Being All Moody Again

The market is panicking, Twitter is yelling, and Bitcoin is doing what Bitcoin has always done.

Hey Folks, I’ve gotten some response from the recent market action, articles, videos, etc talking about what’s coming next. To be honest, none of us know what is coming next but we have to continue to ask the question: Why?

TL;DR (For the I don’t have time)

• Bitcoin is down ~29% from $125K — totally normal

• IBIT isn’t “at risk”; it just tracks Bitcoin

• $30K is a loud opinion, not a base case

• This feels like consolidation, not a top

• Tops feel euphoric — this feels annoying

• Recurring buys + patience > prediction skills

Bitcoin is being dumpy right now.
One day soon, it won’t be.

The show isn’t over.
This is just the part where conviction gets tested.

Stay calm.
Stay curious.
And let time do what it always does.

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Now, let’s set the scene.

Bitcoin is wobbling.
Group chats are buzzing.
YouTube thumbnails are screaming.
And suddenly everyone is a macro wizard again.

Your friends are texting things like:

• “Can’t it hold $89K? 😬”

• “After that Bob Loukas video (see below)… what are you doing, Inspirator?”

• “Seeking Alpha article says Bitcoin could drop to $30K 👀; what does that mean for IBIT”

So let’s slow this all the way down and inject some clarity—with a little Gen-Z seasoning.

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First: That $89K “Problem” Everyone’s Panicking Over

Bitcoin topped around $125K and is currently chopping around $89K.

That’s roughly a 29% pullback.

Let me repeat that louder for the people in the back:

A ~29% drop in Bitcoin is not weird.
It is not bearish.
It is not new.

Historically:

• Bitcoin regularly pulls back 25–40% during bull markets

• These moves shake out tourists, not long-term holders

• This is how Bitcoin tests conviction before moving higher

If you think this is pain… you’re new here.

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Second: The $30K Take seems Loud, Scary, but it’s Missing Context

For Bitcoin to go from $125K to $30K would require a ~76% drawdown.

Those types of moves historically happen:

• After blow-off tops

• When adoption is collapsing

• During full-blown liquidity crises

Now ask yourself honestly:

• Are ETFs exiting en masse? ❌

• Are institutions abandoning Bitcoin? ❌

• Is regulatory clarity reversing? ❌

• Is supply suddenly unlimited? ❌

Could Bitcoin ever overshoot to the downside in panic? Sure.
Is that the base case? Not even close.

Fear headlines sell clicks.
They do not sell probabilities.

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Third: What This Market Is Actually Asking You

Not:

• “Is $89K support?”

• “Who’s right on YouTube?”

• “Is the cycle broken?”

The real question is:

Why are you in Bitcoin?

If your answer is:

• “To get rich fast” → this market will chew you up

• “Because the global financial system is duct-taped together” → you’re fine

Bitcoin hasn’t changed.
The noise level has.

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So, Zoom Out (Yes, Again)

Let’s look down the road:

• $38 trillion in U.S. debt (soon to be north of $40T)

• Political momentum swinging toward Bitcoin acceptance

• ETFs bringing in slow, sticky capital

• Corporate adoption continues to heat up

• Credit marketing being created

• Fixed supply doing its thing quietly in the background

Short-term price = chaos
Long-term trend = incentives

And incentives still point one way.

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Here’s the Part Most People Miss 👇

Volatility is not your enemy.

Impatience is.

This is where the quiet winners are built:

• No leverage

• No hero trades

• No doom scrolling at 2 a.m.

Just:
➡️ patience
➡️ conviction
➡️ automatic recurring buys

That boring little weekly or monthly buy?
That’s not weakness.

That’s your superpower.

You don’t need to time the bottom.
You need to survive the noise.

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WATCH THIS

I like Bob Loukas but remember he is one voice and has one perspective. What he says isn’t gospel truth but take from it what you will.

LISTEN TO THIS!

Jeff Booth gets it at levels none of us do but it’s key that we tune in to him; Saylor is focused on financializing Bitcoin while Jeff is focused on fanaticizing Bitcoin.