🌙 Evening Brief: Options Storm Meets ETF Tailwind
Miners sell, whales shuffle, and options expiry jars the tape—while ETF demand and ETH rotation keep the longer arc intact.
Folks it’s Frrriiiddaayyy!!!!! What a freaking week eh? I hope you all have a great Labor Day weekend (US) and for everyone just enjoy some time off.
Market story: Into a heavy options expiry (~$15B BTC/ETH) day, Bitcoin slipped to its lowest since July 8 amid >$530M liquidations, brief dips under $109.5K, and headline miner selling (~$485M). Yet positioning isn’t one-way: HODLer signals hit a month-high bullish read, and ETF demand (see below) kept the longer-term bid alive.
Bitcoin — Volatile Day, Mixed Signals
Price action: Options expiry + whale moves (seller tied to last week’s 24K BTC sale moved another 10K BTC, with 2K to an exchange) pressured price.
Miners: Net selling popped as BTC struggled at $112K, a classic late-cycle caution flag.
Structure: Bears cite a “warning pattern” with $100K risk; bulls counter with cycle models calling for $160–200K by year-end or a bigger rally in Fall ’25. Net: near-term shaky, multi-quarter debate wide open.
Adoption & Flows — Quiet Accumulation Theme
Spot/ETFs: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs reportedly bought 1,620 BTC yesterday vs. 450 mined (multi-day inflows). Analysts also note U.S. ETFs are now a major share of spot volume—a structural support when risk tempers.
Consumer/corporate touchpoints: Headlines ranged from Gucci accepting BTC in select stores to a Steak ’n Shake remodel “funded by beef tallow & Bitcoin.” Exchange data snippets flagged larger average Binance inflows, implying bigger tickets are active.
Mining — New Records, New Combinations
Hashrate ATH: Network security hit a fresh peak (~929 EH/s).
Corporate moves: Gryphon Digital shareholders approved a combination with a Trump-linked miner—more consolidation as scale matters.
Ethereum — Rotation Resumes (With Caveats)
Flows & whales: Reports of $1B+ accumulated on dips and BTC→ETH rotations by large holders.
Narrative: Multiple desks float $10K scenarios over a multi-year window; banks flag $7.5K paths.
On-chain: August volume ~$320B, highest since mid-2021—evidence of renewed activity.
Frictions: Core-dev sparring and a pause in a $3M grants program are speed bumps, not thesis breakers.
Altcoins — SOL Leads
Solana grabbed momentum on institutional pilots and a golden cross setup—classic rotation hunting while majors chop.
Treasury & Balance Sheets — The Buyer Base Thickens
KindlyMD announced a $5B equity raise for BTC purchases; Amdax aims at a 1% BTC supply target; Airnet Technology (China) bought 819 BTC (~$90M).
Aggregate buzz: 28 companies ≈ $15.9B in BTC over two months; year-to-date institutional buys (~691K BTC)vs ~109K mined—a 6× demand/supply narrative.
Politics — Rulebook Incoming
The U.S. Senate eyes late-September markup on a market-structure bill—potentially a clearer framework into Q4.
Voices — Wide Cones of Uncertainty
Bull cases: “Alt-season ahead” (Tapiero); BTC $190K on institutional wave (Tiger Research); BTC to $250K if Bitcoin DeFi kicks (Hoskinson); Banks holding BTC = supply lock (Saylor).
Bear/base cases: −40% shakeout before $500K (Scaramucci); bull run could peak by Oct or Q1 ’26 (incl. Raoul Pal).
Politics meets crypto: Eric Trump lauds U.S.–China leadership in BTC and tosses a $1M BTC call—headline fodder more than a base case.
Bottom Line
Near term: Options expiry + whale/miner flows kept BTC jumpy; $100–112K is the battleground.
Under the hood: ETF inflows, rising hashrate, and treasury buys argue the structural bid persists.
Rotation: ETH retains the relative-strength baton on flows/usage; SOL rides the slipstream.
Watch next: Post-expiry follow-through, miner stress, ETF net-flow persistence, ETH’s on-chain activity trend, and D.C.’s late-September policy calendar.
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