đ Flows vs. Fumes: Can Bitcoinâs Bid Survive Its Own Success?
ETFs keep hoovering coins, fees just dropped 90%, and adoptionâs sprintingâbut there are early signs of fatigue. Hereâs the real picture tonight.
Folks, sorry for getting this out so late but duty calls. Iâm still on travel and the new opportunity Iâve taken on is consuming a lot of late evenings so hopefully you all get this because there was a lot of late evening news to catch up on.
đŹ Quote of the Day
âEvery Bitcoin you donât buy is a $13 million mistake.â â Michael Saylor
Bitcoinâs price structure remains bullish: technicians are tracking a âflagâ targeting the $120â$122K zone, with calls for a near-term push. Bulls point to the stat that BTC has held above $100K for 130 straight daysâevidence of a higher floorâwhile skeptics caution the âgrowth engineâ could be cooling. The takeaway: momentum is intact, but consensus isnât.
On the network front, the latest Bitcoin Core rollout cuts the default minimum relay fee ~90%, improving transaction relay for low-fee TXs and lowering friction just as demand from ETFs and treasuries keeps tightening the float.
Supply & positioning: Fidelity projects the illiquid BTC stack could reach ~8.3M (~42% of supply) by 2032 as treasuries accumulate. A 9th bullish RSI signal has some traders eyeing ~35% upside, while Bank of America notes ~67% of fund managers still hold zero cryptoâpotential forced buyers if performance leads.
Adoption keeps accelerating: PayPalâs âLinksâ adds native BTC/ETH payments; Shell South Africa is accepting Bitcoin; and Santanderâs Openbank launched retail crypto trading in Germanyâpipes and endpoints are multiplying.
Mining is mixed: profitability slipped in August on hashrate and power costs, yet mining equities are outperforming as investors bet on AI/HPC pivots and diversified revenue streams.
Treasuries & strategic reserve: Corporate buying stays steadyâStrategy added $60M to its BTC stack; new raises (e.g., Capital B at $63M, Chinaâs Next Technologies targeting $500M) suggest treasury adoption is global. On the alt-treasury side, Solana treasuries reportedly hold ~3% of supply (~$4B), fueling the view that SOL-centric corporates may outshine BTC/ETH in 2025.
Ethereum & alts: ETH whales are accumulating as BitMine pushes toward ~$10B in ETH; the market is debating the $5,000 question if liquidity rotates. Solana flashed a repeating bullish signal (the last time preceded a ~1,300% move), but traders are wary of $250 resistance and recent profit-taking. USDC continues its march via Circle Ă Hyperliquid.
ETFs & flows: Digital asset products saw ~$3.3B of weekly inflows; spot BTC ETF demand again outpaced new issuance. BlackRock alone reportedly absorbed >$1B last week. The menu is widening: first U.S. XRP & DOGE ETFsare slated for this week, and Bitwise filed for a stablecoin/tokenization ETFâWall Streetâs next on-chain frontier.
Policy, legislation & legal: A $100M pro-crypto Super PAC formed; the U.S. and U.K. are moving toward closer regulatory cooperation; the Senate confirmed Stephen Miran (seen as pro-Bitcoin) to the Fed Board; Sen. Lummis is advancing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve bill (talks include up to 1M BTC), and lawmakers tapped Michael Saylor and Tom Lee to advise. In enforcement, the SEC and Gemini reached a resolution in principle over Earnâa lingering overhang thatâs finally clearing.
Voices:
Ultra-bulls: Saylor (âevery BTC you donât buy is a $13M mistakeâ), Arthur Hayes ($200K), Tim Draper($250K by year-end), Tom Lee (monster move in 3 months), Dan Morehead ($750Kâ$1M), Eric Trump(âmodern-day goldâ), Adam Back (buy before governments do).
Skeptics/Cautions: Henrik Zeberg warns of a deep crash; Grant Cardone says the Saylor-style treasury wave has peaked; Standard Chartered and others tilt bullish on ETH treasuries; Fundstratâs Mark Newton targets ETH $5,500 by mid-October.
Bottom line: Until ETF/treasury inflows slow, dips are more likely liquidity gaps than a broken thesis. But watch miner economics, breadth, and whether alt-beta (SOL/ETH) siphons marginal bid from BTC near resistance.
â Question of the Day
If ETF demand keeps outpacing new issuance while network fees fall and payment rails expand, where does fresh sell-side supply come fromâand at what price does it appear?
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