đ Liquidity Squeeze, Policy Greenlights: Can Bitcoin Clear $118K and Run the Table?
Price is up, supply is tighter than ever, and the ETF/ETP pipeline just widenedâyet traders see a single whale move as the near-term swing factor.
Bottom line Up Front: Structure > noise. With illiquid supply at ATH, policy gates opening, and balance-sheet demand compounding, dips still look like liquidity resetsâunless a large whale supply event or a failed $118K retest flips the tape. Keep alerts at $118K (breakout/failed breakout), watch ETF/ETP net flows, and mind alt rotations as SOL/XRP/DOGE/BNB reshape marginal liquidity.
đŹ Quote of the Day
âIf itâs not going to zero, itâs going to a million.â â Michael Saylor
Bitcoinâs September is behaving like classic trend acceleration: +8% month-to-date, on pace for the best September in 13 years. Markets shrugged off the Fedâeven after a 25 bps cutâpushing price above $117K and setting up a technical showdown at $118K. If that level is reclaimed with conviction, several desks expect a quick run at the all-time high; probabilistic takes float a 70% chance of new highs within two weeks and even 25% odds of $125K in September. Underneath, the illiquid supply just hit a fresh all-time high, tightening float as retail steady-bids keep BTC hovering above $117Kâbut note the caveat: one large whale transfer could still shock near-term price.
On the mining front, sovereigns are entering the chat: Laos plans to mine Bitcoin using surplus hydropower to monetize capacity and tackle debtâa notable signal that nations are experimenting with BTC as an energy-offtake and balance-sheet tool.
Treasuries & strategic reserve narratives heated up. Corporate balance sheets are moving: GD Culture Group aims to acquire 7,500 BTC (~$876M), Metaplanet raised $1.4B to buy more BTC, and state-level momentum ticked up as the Michigan Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill advanced (would allow up to 10% of state funds in BTC). At the sovereign level, Saylorâs framework posits a U.S. reserve could generate up to $81T over timeâaggressive, but itâs shaping policy debate. Meanwhile, the Solana treasury story is surging: Forward Industries announced a $4B SOL strategy, Solana Foundation & ARK Invest backed a $300M placement for a new SOL treasury vehicle, and Brera rebranded around a $300M SOL treasuryâevidence that corporate treasuries are diversifying beyond BTC/ETH.
Ethereum sits at a fork: one camp flags a $5,400+ target on improving metrics, while another warns of a sharp downsideif $4,000 breaksâkeep risk controls tight if youâre rotating. Alt-beta is loud: BNB printed a $1,000 ATH, DOGE rallied despite $1.6B sold this month, and XRP chatter is back to mega-cycle mode; SOL strength is tempered by data showing all holder groups turning net sellersâwatch for liquidity pockets.
Market plumbing took a leap forward even as BTC ETF inflows paused on hawkish Fed read-throughs. The SEC approved generic listing standardsâan end-of-an-era shift that should speed future crypto ETF approvalsâand also cleared the first U.S. multi-asset crypto ETP (Grayscale). Abroad, Valour launched the worldâs first physically-backed Bitcoin âstakingâ ETP on the LSE (1.4% indicative yield), Poland listed its first BTC ETF, and an XRP ETFset record volumes on U.S. debut. In tokenization, DBS + Franklin Templeton + Ripple teamed up on on-chain fund rails, while Coinbase rolled out on-chain USDC lending with yields up to 10.8%, reinforcing the stablecoin income lane.
Voices remain boldly split: Arthur Hayes sees a Fed-driven catapult to $1M, Saylor repeats âif itâs not going to zero, itâs going to a million,â Samson Mow pushes the $10M endpoint and dollar-sat parity, while macro voices like Luke Gromen argue dismissing BTC for âno yieldâ is Western privilege. On the policy track, Brian Armstrong frames the next U.S. crypto bill as a âfreight train.â
â Question of the Day
If $118K breaks and ETF/ETP product shelves keep expanding, where do you size BTC vs. rotate into ETH/SOL/BNBâand whatâs your whale-risk hedge for the next two weeks?
WHAT TO WATCH
LISTEN TO THIS!