Good morning everybody—power washers outside, busy docket inside. If a little street-scrubbing sneaks into the audio, sorry in advance. Let’s get to it.
Polkadot just voted to cap DOT supply (Ref. 1710)
What changed: Up to now, DOT had no cap and minted ~120M DOT/year. Referendum 1710 (passed with 81%support on the Wish-for-Change track) introduces a hard cap at ~2.1B DOT.
Schedule: Issuance steps down every two years on Pi Day (Mar 14).
Supply math:
Today: ~1.6B DOT in existence
Old path by 2040: ~3.4B
New path by 2040: ~1.91B (i.e., +~300M vs today, not +1.8B)
Why it matters: Scarcity + predictability = better long-term alignment for holders, treasuries, and builders.
Bitcoin Core v30 (October 2025): data policy drama
Three changes in v30 have node operators heated:
Multiple
OP_RETURNs per tx — First time in a decade you can have >1 data output.Rewritten data-carrier sizing — The config that used to cap
OP_RETURNbytes now maps differently; a setting like “92 bytes” effectively permits ~830 bytes in v30 (≈9× more).Deprecating configurability — Defaults shift toward ~4 MB filters; data-carrier size is marked for deprecation, signaling possible future removal of user control.
Critics call this deceptive scope-creep that invites more non-payment data and centralizes policy in Core. Core devs say it aligns standardness rules and clarifies knobs that were always best-effort. Bottom line: way more arbitrary data, semantic shifts in old flags, and a path to fewer controls—expect a long food fight.
(H/T to Mikey for flagging—Jameson Lopp’s notes are on my to-read stack.)
If you’re re-thinking self-custody setups while this plays out, keep a solid wallet list handy: Lopp’s recommended Bitcoin wallets.
Thailand’s anti-scam dragnet is freezing innocents, too
What happened: Cybercrime police and banks froze three banks’ accounts and slapped nationwide daily transfer limits (~฿50,000 / $1,570). Suspensions run 3–7 days (or longer with police extension).
Collateral damage: Merchants and expats report weeks of lockouts, forced in-person biometric re-registration, and QR payments paused in spots.
Why now: Surge in Chinese-run call-center fraud; Thailand coordinating with Japan/India to dismantle rings.
Crypto angle: “Free marketing for Bitcoin,” say locals—though crypto payments remain banned. Central bank + cybercrime units are now huddling on a workaround for law-abiding users.
Imagine waking up to a frozen account because you looked like a “mule” to an algorithm.
IRS: from targeted probes to near real-time crypto visibility
Tooling & reach: Since 2017, the IRS scaled from John Doe summons to ongoing chain monitoring, cross-referencing data from Coinbase, Kraken, Circle, Poloniex, etc.
Haul & non-compliance: $3.5B seized in 2021; IRS pegs potential non-compliance at ~75% among flagged taxpayers.
New forms: 1099-DA arrives 2025 (reporting gross proceeds & cost basis from 2026 tax year). The aim: fix 1099-K confusion.
Limits & headaches: Reporting won’t cleanly cover DEXs, cross-wallet hops, or multi-exchange flows. Expect mismatches, CP-2000s, and lawyering.
Courts: SCOTUS declined a challenge over exchange data access; Coinbase compared this posture to a “financial ankle monitor.”
My view: for pre-2017 vets and anyone who moved coins off-exchange, cost basis and methodology(FIFO/LIFO/specific lot) can become a retroactive mess. Exchanges didn’t want your SSN; regulation forced it—and with that, leak risk.
Monero’s biggest reorg ever: 18 blocks nuked
Event: Mining pool Cubic revealed a withheld chain that overtook the public one, causing an 18-block reorg in ~36 minutes and invalidating 118 txs.
Mechanic: This looks like selfish mining—withhold blocks, then publish a longer chain to rewrite recent history. Under PoW rules, nodes flip to the heavier chain.
Impact: The old “10 confirmations is safe” norm just got dented. Exchanges are raising confirmations.
Context: Cubic also boasted a 51% attempt last month “to help security.” Price ticked up this week anyway, but concerns over hash concentration and security budget are loud.
TraderCobb’s weekly setup (rate-cut week)
Craig’s TL;DR:
Last week’s plan hit: weekly bullish break, TOTAL/Others highs cleared, alts ran; he banked and is still in AVAX (weekly breakout).
Now: We’re in a healthy pullback across BTC/majors—cradle zone stuff, not panic.
Hunt list:
BTC: Wants a dip toward 114k (even a touch lower to former resistance → support). If he gets a small bullish candle there: long.
SOL: Bullish structure; ~$220 pullback + bullish candle = long.
Similar read on ETH, BNB, DOGE, ADA—let them breathe.
Macro wild card: Market’s priced for 25 bps; a 50 bps cut could light fireworks.
You can catch his free note at thegrowmeco.com.
Mailbag: speech, signals, and Gemini
Will (on Charlie Kirk): “No one took his speech, they took his life.” I’ve sat with that. You may not ban the words, but shooting people for speaking does chill speech. Consequences exist; using murder as the consequence corrodes a free society.
Skyler: Solana meme-coins became a breaking-news radar; with Deadpool bets banned on some venues, spec migrated to instant tokenization. First deployer = first liquidity. Grim, but true.
Gemini IPO (Malcolm’s nudge): I aped modestly—$2,000 at $35—then watched it close lower day-one, bounce ~6% at today’s open. I may DCA small and share the trade transparently here. Not advice—just accountability.
Quick hits
Twerk From Home is launching an online twerking tournament with a $10,000 grand prize, sportsbook integration (Bet105), and crypto payouts—framed as “UFC-ify” for exotic dance and a workaround for de-banking. Streams run through Oct 4.
Pump.Fun’s PUMP token roared back: ~+40% daily, ~+64% weekly. We said last week it’s not a meme coin but infra for launching them—hope anyone watching that thread caught the move.
Prices
9:47 a.m. ET — Fear & Greed: 51 (neutral)
BTC $114,704 (-0.5% 24h)
ETH $4,512 (-2.4% 24h)
XRP $3.02 (-0.8% 24h)
SOL $235 (-4.0% 24h)
BNB $918 (-1.5% 24h)
DOGE $0.263 (-7.5% 24h, cooled from >$0.30)
TRX $0.343 (-1.5% 24h)
ADA $0.864 (-3.1% 24h)
Total mkt cap: $3.99T (-1.1% 24h)
BTC: $2.285T
ETH: $544.9B
That was a lot. If you’ve been caught in Thailand’s freeze, wrangling 1099-DA prep, or playing the Gemini open—drop your story. And if you’re tightening your Bitcoin opsec as Core v30 lands, start by picking a wallet you actually trust: Lopp’s recommended Bitcoin wallets.
Until tomorrow, happy HODLing everyone.
