RIP? Not Quite. Revisiting Bitcoin’s “Obituary” For The 4-Year Cycle
Buy when everyone is afraid — even if the blood on the charts is your own.
TL;DR:
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle isn’t dead — it’s just getting older, more complicated, and sharing the spotlight with global macro forces, ETFs, and institutional flows. The halving still matters, but it’s no longer the only driver. Fees are rising, the network is maturing, volatility is dropping, and long-term demand plays an increasingly dominant role.
The 2021 “obituary” for the 4-year cycle was early, not wrong — and if analysts like FiboSwanny are right with calls for $209K by July 2026, we may be entering a hybrid phase between the old halving-driven rhythm and a much larger multi-year super-cycle. In other words:
Nibs now, nibbles later, zoom out, and enjoy the ride. 🚀
Back in April 2021, a smart guy writing under the name Dilution-Proof published a piece called something like an “ode and forthcoming obituary” for Bitcoin’s famous 4-year cycle.
The idea was simple:
“Yes, the halving cycle is real.
No, it won’t last forever.
One day fees take over, halvings fade, and Bitcoin grows up.”
Fast-forward to 2025, and here we are again:
Another halving in the rear-view mirror.
Another big run-up in price.
And, of course, more bold price calls flying around Crypto Twitter and YouTube.
So… was that 2021 “obituary” right, wrong, or just early?
As MGK says, let’s talk about it.
1. What The 2021 Article Got Exactly Right
First, credit where it’s due. The 2021 piece did a great job explaining why Bitcoin has acted like a 4-year drama series.
a) The Halving Heartbeat
Every 4 years:
The reward for miners gets cut in half.
That means less new Bitcoin hitting the market every day.
If demand stays the same (or goes up), the market starts to run out of cheap coins.
Price has to rise to convince existing holders to part with their BTC.
Classic supply squeeze. Simple, dirty, and beautiful.
Historically, that’s looked like:
Halving
12–18 months of price party 🥳
Big bubble top
Nasty crash 😬
Long, boring bear market
Repeat
The 2021 author nailed this structure and even built fancy tools like Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) to show when price was “hot” or “cold” relative to its 4-year average.
b) Miners And Fees Also Move In Cycles
He also pointed out:
Hashrate usually dips a bit after the halving, then rips as price goes up and mining becomes profitable again.
Mempool and fees get crazy late in the bull run, when everyone suddenly remembers Bitcoin exists.
Over each cycle, fees trend higher as a share of miner income.
That’s all aged pretty well. We’ve seen:
Hashrate hit all-time highs again.
Fee spikes from Ordinals, inscriptions, and post-halving mania.
No actual “mining death spiral,” despite all the scary headlines.
c) The Long-Run Story: Halvings Fade, Fees Matter
The real “obituary” part was about the future:
Block rewards trend toward zero over time.
Fees have to eventually pay miners to secure the network.
As fees become the main income, each halving matters less.
Price action stops following a neat 4-year script and starts reflecting:
real demand
global liquidity
business cycles
That logic is solid. On a chalkboard, it’s true.
The question is timing.
2. What Actually Happened Between 2021 And 2025
Let’s zoom out and look at what we lived through after that article dropped:
2020 halving → 2021 blow-off top near $69K.
2022 hell year: big crash, macro tightening, everyone suddenly “remembers” risk.
Slow recovery in 2023.
2024 halving → another big bull leg into 2025, helped by:
Spot ETFs
Friendlier policy talk
Institutional “okay fine, we’ll own some” energy.
Tell me that doesn’t look suspiciously like… a 4-year cycle.
Is it identical to 2013 or 2017? No.
Is it still heavily shaped by the halving? Oh yeah.
On top of that:
We did see fees explode at times.
We did see blocks where fees beat the subsidy.
But on most days, the subsidy is still king.
So the system is moving in the direction the 2021 piece described… just slower, messier, and very much still halving-centric.
3. Where The “Obituary” Was Premature
Here’s the honest read:
Still True Today:
Halvings cause real supply shocks.
Long-term DCA plus at least one full cycle is still a killer strategy.
Fees and on-chain congestion flare up in late-cycle euphoria.
Bitcoin is becoming more tied to macro and liquidity.
A Bit Early / Overconfident:
The death of the 4-year cycle?
Not yet. The patient is walking around, lifting weights, and setting new all-time highs.The idea that halving-based models would already be useless?
PlanB’s S2F got wrecked, yes. But “follow the halving” still clearly shapes behavior and flows.
So if 2021 wrote an “obituary,” 2025 looks more like:
“Update: the 4-year cycle is older, grumpier, and now has macro roommates—but it’s very much alive.”
4. Enter FiboSwanny And The $209K Question
Now, into this mix, we have folks like FiboSwanny—and in his recent video with Krown, he’s talking about Bitcoin at $209,000 by July 2026.
This is where I pause and smile.
Because this is exactly what a maturing, half-halving, half-macro environment looks like:
You still have the cycle people (Elliott Wave, Fib levels, fractals).
You now also have macro people (liquidity cycles, rate cuts, ETFs, political catalysts).
And somewhere in the middle, the market stitches those stories together into one messy price path.
“FiboSwanny says Bitcoin could hit $209,000 by July 2026.”
Is that guaranteed? Absolutely not.
Is it insane? Maybe.
Is it impossible? Not even close.Big cycles, big liquidity, big players, and big fear make big moves.
Sometimes the craziest numbers are the ones history ends up remembering.
My take?
A 209K target by mid-2026 is:
Aggressive,
Not impossible,
And exactly the kind of number that:
gets people’s attention,
makes bears roll their eyes,
and eventually either becomes a victory lap clip… or a meme.
I don’t need to agree with every digit of the target to appreciate the direction of the call:
We are still in a bigger, multi-year uptrend, even with scary pullbacks along the way.
And that part fits very nicely with the original 2021 thesis: as halvings fade, long-term demand shocks can produce “supercycles.”
5. So Where Does This Leave You As An Investor?
Let’s keep it fifth-grade simple:
The 4-year cycle is not dead.
It’s still the basic rhythm underneath the noise.But it’s no longer the only drum.
ETFs
Global liquidity
Regulation
Big corporate and political moves
all now matter just as much.
Halvings will matter less over time, not all at once.
Think “fade-out,” not “off switch.”Bold price targets are fine, but your plan matters more.
If we hit 209K by mid-2026, great.
If we don’t, and “only” grind higher over 5–10 years, that’s still life-changing for anyone who:
Bought sensibly
Nibbled on dips
Didn’t panic-sell when it got ugly.
DCA + Time In The Market > Trying To Guess The Exact Top Or Bottom.
The 2021 article’s quiet genius was this:
Hold Bitcoin for at least one full cycle, and historically you’ve done really well.
That’s still true today.
6. Closing Thought: The Real Obituary We’ll Write Someday
One day, many years from now, there will be a real obituary to write—not for Bitcoin, but for the comfort blanket of:
“Just wait for the halving, bro.”
When fees truly dominate, supply issuance is basically flat, and Bitcoin is fully soaked into the world’s financial system, price won’t move in clean 4-year waves.
It’ll move like:
A global macro asset
With real adoption,
Real political consequences,
And real grown-up volatility.
That’s the day the 2021 author was pointing toward.
Until then?
I’m happy to live in this in-between world:
Where halvings still matter.
Macro still matters.
Smart people can call for 209K,
Bears can scream “bubble,”
And we can quietly keep nibbling on red candles while everyone else argues.
Because whether we top at 150K, 209K, or something nobody has on their chart yet…
What goes down, must come up has worked pretty well for Bitcoin so far.
And I don’t mind being early to that, either.
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