Sentiment Snaps Back as BTC Reclaims $112K

Accumulation builds, treasuries swell, and Q4 catalysts stack up—even as ETF flows wobble

Sep 30, 2025

Hey folks, I am on travel so my briefs might look a bit weird, not enough time in the day but I wanted to get something to ya :) Enjoy the rally!

Bottom Line Up Front — Late-Cycle Rules Apply

Price reclaimed $112K, accumulation is visible, institutions are conflicted (outflows vs. October ETF runway), and treasuries keep stacking. That’s a constructive backdrop—with late-cycle volatility risk squarely on the table.

Bitcoin Price Action — Accumulation vs. Exhaustion

Bitcoin pushed back above $112K, reviving bull-market vibes as dip-buyers absorbed supply. On-chain and fund flow chatter points to roughly $8B in new accumulation, with some eyeing $115K as the near-term magnet if momentum holds. Context check: we’re 1,053 days from the November 2022 $15K bottom—prior cycles averaged ~1,064 days from bottom to top—so timing alone argues we’re late-cycle and prone to sharper swings even if the trend stays up.

Takeaway: Price reclaimed a key level, but late-cycle tape + tight ranges = expect fast moves both ways.

Bitcoin Mining — Scale Gets (Even) Bigger

TeraWulf is seeking $3B in Google-backed debt financing to expand data centers. The signal: hyperscaler-grade capital is flowing into Bitcoin-adjacent compute, tightening the link between AI-ready infrastructure and BTC mining.

Takeaway: Industrial miners are gearing for the next capacity leg, reinforcing network security—and the AI/Bitcoin infrastructure overlap.

Adoption — From Headlines to High Conviction

A viral headline touting the “smartest man alive” moving all assets to Bitcoin underscores the cultural bull case: more public figures are framing BTC as default savings. Sensational? Sure. But it reflects a growing comfort with Bitcoin as a long-term treasury asset for individuals and institutions alike.

Takeaway: Narrative momentum matters—expect more “all-in” anecdotes to shape retail sentiment.

Whales — Old Coins Wake, Rotations Elsewhere

A $44M BTC wallet moved after 12 years of silence—classic late-cycle behavior as ancient coins test liquidity. Meanwhile, XRP whales reportedly scooped 120M tokens, hinting at cross-asset positioning ahead of ETF and regulatory headlines.

Takeaway: Dormant BTC supply is mobile again; rotation into large-cap alts suggests speculative risk is alive.

Strategic Reserve & Corporate Treasury — Growing Pains of a New Asset Class

Treasury risk debate: Critics warn that “crypto treasuries” can rhyme with dot-com excess if governance lags.
Metrics under fire: NYDIG called on treasury firms to drop mNAV as “misleading,” pushing for cleaner, comparable reporting.
Balance sheets swelling: Strategy added $22M in BTC and now reports >640K BTC.
Institutional pressure: South Korea’s $930B pension giant is being urged to consider Bitcoin and digital assets.
ETH on the books: Tom Lee–linked Ethereum treasury reportedly added 234,850 ETH in a week, taking holdings above $11B.

Takeaway: Treasuries are normalizing crypto exposure, but standards and disclosures need to catch up fast.

ETFs — October Decision Window, Mixed Flows

October is shaping up as “ETF month” with 16 crypto funds awaiting decisions. Near-term, BTC and ETH ETFs saw $1.7B in outflows as institutions pared risk. Separate chatter points to a procedural step forward in the XRP ETF pathway—another reason whales may be repositioning.

Takeaway: Near-term ETF flows are choppy, but the pipeline keeps expanding—volatility around decisions is likely.

Altcoins — XRP Steals a Headline

XRP reportedly saw >$6B in inflows overnight. Whether that’s sustained demand or short-term positioning into ETF/regulatory catalysts, it adds torque to the large-cap alt narrative.

Takeaway: If ETF or policy headlines firm up, XRP could remain the liquidity magnet among alts.

Stablecoins & Cross-Border Rails — Quiet Power

USDT + USDC dominated $46B of quarterly stablecoin inflows, reinforcing their central role in crypto liquidity. Meanwhile, Swift teaming with ConsenSys on a blockchain prototype for cross-border payments signals incumbents are actively testing crypto-native rails.

Takeaway: Stablecoins are the pipes; TradFi pipes (Swift) are experimenting with crypto valves.

Legislation & Regulation — More Signals, Fewer Rumors

Massachusetts will hold a hearing on a Bitcoin reserve bill—symbolic, but notable state-level interest.
U.S. regulators shot down SEC-CFTC merger rumors, aiming to tamp down “FUD.”
Adrienne Harris stepped down as head of NY DFS, a meaningful personnel change at a key crypto regulator.

Takeaway: Policy is grinding forward at the state level while federal agencies try to steady the narrative.

Voices — Macro, Policy, and Moonshots (The Market’s Inner Monologue)

The chorus around Bitcoin is getting louder—and more polarized. On one side, the maximalist drumbeat is deafening: Michael Saylor insists that if the world understood what he knows, BTC would be $10M “tomorrow,” and he wagers there’s room for one nation to scoop up 20% of the network—his money’s on the United States. Jack Dorsey calls the white paper “poetry,” while Jeff Booth elevates Bitcoin to “humanity’s greatest invention.” Even in policy circles, the tone is shifting: reports say Max Keiser is heading to the White House to talk Bitcoin, an SEC chair frames crypto as priority No. 1, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif labels crypto a “tool of the future.”

Under the hood, institutions are waking up—albeit unevenly. Tom Lee argues 95% of investors still have zero Bitcoin exposure, implying the adoption S-curve is barely past the first rung. Ryan Watkins imagines today’s crypto treasury firms maturing into Berkshire-like giants, while Lyn Alden projects a path for Bitcoin to ultimately surpass gold’s $25Tmarket cap. In the same spirit, Eric Trump spotlights the frictionless nature of value transfer—hyperbole on fees notwithstanding—to illustrate why big money is paying attention.

But the path won’t be linear. Jordi Visser warns of sharp Q4 corrections before fresh all-time highs—a classic late-cycle signature. Macro still matters: channeling the Galaxy CEO narrative, Mike McGlone says Bitcoin’s “biggest bull catalyst” could be a dovish Fed, with scenarios that push BTC toward $200K. Samson Mow adds a geopolitical accelerant: nation-state adoption may arrive “suddenly,” not gradually—one domino tips, and the rest follow.

Put together, the signal is clear: cultural conviction is rising, institutional structures are forming, and policy winds are shifting—yet veterans are bracing for jagged tape before the next leg higher. If this is late cycle, the rules are simple: own the trend, respect the air pockets, and watch the policy tape as closely as the price chart.

Takeaway: The loudest voices pair policy optimism with warnings about Q4 volatility—positioning and risk management matter.

Interesting — A Century-Old Foreshadow

Henry Ford (circa 1920s) envisioned an “energy currency” backed by electricity—an eerily prescient rhyme with Bitcoin’s proof-of-work and monetization of energy.

Takeaway: The idea that money should be rooted in energy is older than Bitcoin; BTC is the first system to operationalize it at scale.

What I’m Watching Next (Q4)

ETF decisions and second-order flow effects.
Treasury disclosures and accounting standardization (kill mNAV, add clarity).
Macro—any hint of a more dovish Fed.
Mining build-outs and the AI-compute overlap.
Whale behavior (ancient coins moving; alt rotations) as a sentiment tell.

Stay nimble. Respect the uptrend, hedge the air-pockets.