Good morning everyone. It’s Fed day — the decision hits at 2 p.m. ET — so we’ll dig into markets tomorrow. Let’s get into today’s stories.
🛰️ XYO Launches Blockchain’s First Data-Focused L1 With 10M Nodes
💸 Argentina Bond Ponzi Collapse Sparks Bitcoin Debate
📈 Polymarket Token Speculation Soars With $10B Valuation
⚖️ OFAC Sanctions Iranians Over $100M Illicit Oil Sales Using Crypto
📉 Trader Cobb & Market Training via The Grow Me Co
XYO Launches Data-First Layer 1 (and My FOMO Lesson)
“XYO… has launched an XYO Layer 1 token… designed specifically for large-scale industries like AI, logistics, and cloud services.”
XYO unveiled its new Layer-1 focused on high-throughput, low-latency data workloads. The design introduces Lookback Window and Proof of Perfect to cut bloat and hardware strain, and it ships with a dual-token model: XYO remains the deflationary governance/staking asset; the new utility token, XL1, fuels gas, rewards, and day-to-day operations. XL1 is earned by staking XYO, aligning incentives and constraining free float as XYO migrates its own products first, then partners across AI training, real estate, and supply chain tokenization.
My Take
“I aped at the FOMO… and now I am a forced HODLer.”
Full transparency: I hold XYO and aped XL1 — late. I watched it 4x from a ~$7M cap and jumped in; it popped another ~20% and then nuked ~80%. Learn from my mistakes: FOMO entries turn you into involuntary long-term holders.
Argentina’s Carry Trade: Saifedean’s ‘Ponzi’ Warning
“If you didn’t read it, you should read it… The Bitcoin Standard.”
Saifedean Ammous warns Argentina’s high-yield peso carry trade is unsustainable: printing to fund yields accelerates devaluation, crowds out productive capital, and ends in flight to safer assets like USD or Bitcoin. With short-term rates screaming, the peso slipping despite interventions, and tens of billions in the trade, he argues the crisis risk is rising — and that Bitcoin offers an exit for savers.
My Take
“I understand how that feels.”
After the Libra meme-coin scandal whipsaw, I get the pain of paper gains turning to rugs. The bigger point: if policy props up yields with money printing, the music stops suddenly — and people sprint to harder assets.
Polymarket’s Momentum: Token Talk and a 10x Valuation Jump
“Let me say that again. In June, valuation at $1 billion. Now… $10 billion.”
Polymarket is hinting at a token while reportedly raising at $9–10B after CFTC progress, a U.S. rollout, new revenue, sports markets, and partnerships like StockTwits. A token could share fees, deepen liquidity, and reward market makers — potentially pulling traders from rivals like Kalshi.
My Take
“You can’t be on the board of both and create products to shoot another company in the foot.”
Donald Trump Jr. sits with both Polymarket and Kalshi; that conflict will matter once tokens and product roadmaps collide.
OFAC Sanctions, Iran’s ‘Shadow Banking,’ and the Stablecoin Divide
“If you sanction a country… you think they’re just going to sit there? No — they’ll find ways.”
OFAC sanctioned two Iranians and a web of Hong Kong/UAE fronts tied to >$100M in crypto linked to illicit oil sales. Flows allegedly moved through USDT and TRON, hopscotching wallets before landing on loosely regulated ramps. This is the cat-and-mouse of sanctions — but it also underscores the compliance gap in parts of stablecoin and L1 infrastructure.
My Take
“That’s why I say cohesion between Coinbase, Circle, the regulators — USDC, not USDT — is what’s going to fuel Circle’s growth.”
USDC’s regulatory posture looks built for where U.S. policy is going. If Tether/TRON don’t button up, they’ll be painted as the villains in the next round of rules.
The Truth About Margin Trading
Does more leverage mean more risk or more profit?
Listener Questions
Tyler on PulseChain: “With all due respect, it’s wrong to judge the tech based off of Richard Hart.”
My Take: “Sometimes you just don’t touch things because you don’t want to touch them… You’re also buying the CEO.”
Between an Interpol red notice, ugly allegations, and the public persona, I’m out — even if the tech is solid.
Jay on Base Rotations: “Base will rip like a MF’er — what coins ride the wave?”
My Take: “I do think Base will rip… I’ll think about the basket.”
Micky Papa on Rate Cuts: “If we get a 50 bps cut (or multiple), does it scream ‘we’re behind’ and turn bearish?”
My Take: “I personally think that we will rip because of the sentiment… but there’s a lot pointing to more hurt long-term.”
Macro Rant: Rates, Housing, and Memory
“I kind of regret [buying the house]… This same house that was $200K in 2020 is now $400K.”
Even with rate cuts, the price reset is psychological. People remember yesterday’s prices, not a gentle slope higher. Cheaper money might kick the can, but wage-to-payment math still feels worst-ever for many buyers.
Crypto Prices
As of 10:00 a.m. ET:
Bitcoin (BTC): $116,160 • Market Cap: $2.31T
Ethereum (ETH): $4,497 • Market Cap: $543B
XRP: $3.02
BNB: $950
Solana (SOL): $235.60
Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.266
Tron (TRX): $0.340
Cardano (ADA): $0.871
Total Crypto Market Cap: $4.03T
Summary
XYO ships a data-first L1 while I relearn the FOMO lesson in real time. Saifedean warns Argentina’s yield machine ends in a sprint to hard money. Polymarket’s token drums beat as its valuation 10x’s. OFAC’s Iran action spotlights why USDC’s compliance could eclipse USDT/TRON in U.S. policy. Listeners press me on PulseChain, Base rotations, and whether 50 bps is bullish or a red flag — my read: cuts rip sentiment short-term, but the structural drag is still there.
Happy HODLing, Everyone.
