We went live, the stream worked, and the market didn’t. Bitcoin slipped hard under 100K. Sentiment flipped to fear, and everyone wants a culprit.
The big move: BTC under 100K
Spot price during the stream hovered near $96,356.
ETH sat a little over $3,000.
This is not just crypto. Stocks were red, gold was soft, and the S&P opened weak. Liquidity and confidence are thin.
Why this drop makes sense
Shutdown drag: Forty days of missed federal paychecks matters. Less cash velocity into travel, food, and services bleeds into risk assets with a lag.
Data blackout: With government data delayed, traders fill the void with rumors and caution.
Cycle talk: Four-year crowd says “top is in.” The other camp notes we never saw classic top signals.
Saylor rumor, clarified
A wave of headlines screamed that MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor sold 33,000 BTC. On air we flagged fresh comments from Saylor saying they are buying, not selling. The large wallet activity appears to be movement, not market dumping. Price started stabilizing after that cleared up.
ETF flows: rough day
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $866 million in outflows, the second worst day so far. Capitulation? Maybe. Or just fast money de-risking while macro is foggy.
Alt headline: Canary XRP ETF
Canary’s XRP ETF launched with about $58 million in day-one volume. Best ETF day-one of the year while the tape was ugly. The contrast says there is still real demand for simple brokerage-rail exposure.
Epstein file drip: crypto angle
Early reads from the big email/photo dump suggest Brock Pierce discussed Bitcoin with Larry Summers at Jeffrey Epstein’s Manhattan home, years after Epstein’s 2008 conviction. It adds heat to the reputational-risk side of early Bitcoin politics. More digging is coming as folks parse the 27,000+ images.
Listener corner
Obsidian Enoch: posted deeper notes on quantum and crypto. Worth a look.
Malcolm: calls for weak Black Friday and a soft holiday season. If that lands, risk stays heavy.
Jason: tax-loss season could grind November and December. We are watching cash levels and crab-walk behavior.
My take
Macro is doing the heavy lifting. The shutdown’s money vacuum plus missing data makes everyone defensive.
The Saylor rumor showed how fragile tape is right now. One headline can set off a chain reaction.
Canary’s XRP print was legit in a bad tape. That tells me wrappers into TradFi rails still have juice.
I am not calling a cycle top without the usual signals. We never got a full alt season, blow-off readings, or fear-greed extremes. Could still happen. Could also be the cycle that breaks patterns. Nobody knows.
Prices at showtime
BTC: ~$96,356
ETH: ~$3,0xx
Board was red across majors, with pockets of green trying to defend.
Bottom line
Liquidity was yanked for forty days. Rumors filled the gaps. ETFs had an ugly print. Yet new product demand still showed up. I am cautious on the next few weeks until data returns and the shutdown ripples wash through.
Happy HODLing, Everyone.
References & Affiliates
📉 What’s Driving Bitcoin’s Dip Below $100,000
🏦 XRP ETF Sees Year’s Strongest Debut With $58 Million First Day Trading
🕵️ Epstein Emails Reference Bitcoin Meeting at Brock Pierce’s Manhattan Mansion
📊 Bitcoin ETFs See 2nd Worst Day at $866M Outflow, Bull Market Still Intact: Analyst
Self-Custody Crypto Roth IRA: athenic.xyz
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Disclaimer
This content is not financial, legal, or tax advice. It reflects personal opinions for educational and entertainment purposes only.
I am not a financial advisor or expert, and I do not guarantee any specific outcome.
Always do your own research before making any investment or financial decisions.
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