From a Lisbon Balcony: Details, Deflation of Pride, and the Next Turn of the Wheel
I’m writing this from a little European balcony in Lisbon, the kind that opens over old cobblestones and a tangle of street sounds. It’s a fitting perch to think about hospitality, work, money, and why so many rooms—literal and metaphorical—are one wiped surface away from feeling right.
The hospitality lens I can’t turn off
I spent about two decades in hospitality, and that wired me to notice what most people miss. If something’s scuffed, dusty, out of place, or a quick spritz and ten extra minutes of elbow grease away from feeling “cared for,” I can’t not see it. And that tiny bit of TLC—freshening fabrics, cleaning high corners on a rotation—completely changes how a place feels. Pennies in, outsized vibes out.
What we’re building at DCN
On the show, Kyle and I deliberately leaned into our differences. I’m drawn to social commentary, politics, macro, and big trends; Kyle’s deep in the weeds—DeFi, reward asset tokenization, and the emerging edges. It’s peanut butter and jelly, yin and yang. Lately, I’ve stepped back some days so he can drive more of the technical coverage, and it’s made the whole thing better.
Travel has me bouncing—London, now Lisbon—but I’ll be back in Northeast Ohio soon to hunker down for fall/winter: more podcasting, site updates, Substack, and the writing I’ve wanted to ship. Kyle’s got big life stuff (wedding!) and a new business, which is going well. We’ve been scattered; now we’re getting organized for a sharper DCN cadence.
Powell, “sticky” inflation, and the AI undertow
Jerome Powell’s latest signals lit risk on fire and then fizzled—ETH spiked, BTC moved, and then momentum cooled. Underneath the chart squiggles, the story I’m watching hasn’t changed: layoffs grinding higher, unemployment nudging up, job creation that doesn’t feel like creation, and inflation that’s “sticky” enough for people to want to move the goalposts.
Layer AI into that, and the entry-level on-ramp keeps narrowing. It’s not just burger joints going self-serve; QR menus and phone ordering are gutting service work into a low-touch, fewer-people model. In a 100-seat restaurant, if guests handle most requests on their phones, you might only need a couple of runners to bring food and refill water. That’s the direction of travel, and it ties straight back to labor, productivity, and the Fed.
The next leg, in my view, is the hollowing of middle management. One “manager + AI + integrated tooling” will do what used to be ten people’s worth of meeting, tracking, and nudging. Slack, Teams, SaaS, and AI extensions turn coordination into a higher-leverage solo sport.
A factory tour, and a feeling I can’t shake
I toured Ford’s Rouge plant in Dearborn and saw a line that’s half machines, half humans. One worker was popping an electrical component in, checking his phone between units, then catching back up as the line rolled. It hit me: the job as designed is already automatable; the concessions that keep a human on that station (headphones, phones on the floor) feel like sandbags against a rising river. We’ve fought automation before, but this time the pride problem is sharper—how do you love a job the machine is clearly better at and is waiting to take?
When factories become food courts
From Battersea Power Station to Cincinnati’s Union Terminal, to redeveloped docks and depots, I keep seeing the same end state: old production bones turned into retail and F&B, anchored by the same global brands. It’s cool; it’s also a tell about what we make—and don’t—anymore. Venture-backed roll-ups buy districts; mom-and-pop tenants struggle with the rent math.
That’s why the bigger macro question nags: in high-wage Western economies with tighter migration spigots and a services-heavy base, what grows when AI compresses both entry-level white-collar and middle management at speed? It’s a little pessimistic and a little opportunistic; the edges are where new industries start.
A housing reality check (perspective matters)
Housing pain in the U.S. is real. But spending time in Europe reframed some of the discourse for me. In many “proper” city centers—London, Lisbon—$400K can buy you a shoebox, not a house with a yard and a garage. In parts of the U.S., $260K–$400K still buys actual space. It’s not a “quit complaining” take; it’s a reminder that markets are local, tradeoffs are everywhere, and if you can buy something livable, that’s a privilege worth acknowledging.
The student’s question: does Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still matter?
Evan asked about the halving cycle and what to watch this academic year. My honest take: the more people “know” a pattern, the more likely it is to break—or at least bend. If I were a student, I wouldn’t try to outsmart the cycle. I’d make small, boring, automatic buys I can afford every week, no matter the price. Time in the market has beaten timing the market more often than not. Build an emergency fund first, keep your life stable, and let compounding do the unsexy heavy lifting.
Also: taking profits isn’t heresy. There’s a difference between “never sell” and “never have cash when it’s raining.” Your accounting method matters (LIFO vs. FIFO) when you do sell; talk to a pro and be consistent so Uncle Sam doesn’t become your surprise largest counterparty.
Where I think we’re headed (near-term)
I can see markets printing higher highs while the median person feels worse. If holiday spending prints soft, legacy media will notice it too late; by then, the story will have been in motion for months. Rate cuts can goose risk and cap tables without improving the cashier’s checkout math. That bifurcation—booming multiples vs. brittle household budgets—may be the real story of the next 12–18 months.
In the midst of it, the opportunity is to build for the periphery: tools that give one person the leverage of ten without needing ten salaries; services that make smaller teams feel large; niche AI that pushes a task from “80% okay” to “100% indispensable.” That’s where I’m looking.
Share this post