Yeah… not a great day in cryptoland. Equities puked, algos chased, liquidity vanished, and crypto followed the S&P off a cliff. Let’s hit what actually happened, why it snowballed, and where the real “max pain” levels might sit if this keeps sliding. Then we’ll run through listener notes and today’s prices (hold your nose).
MARKETS
A near-4% S&P drop erased roughly $2.7T in value and flipped sentiment to extreme fear across stocks and crypto. Nvidia’s earnings pop fully unwound. Bitcoin revisited the $80Ks for the first time since April. This wasn’t one headline—more like a bad cocktail: wider credit spreads, rate-cut hopes fading, gamma/hedge flows unwinding, and thin books that forced market makers to sell into the hole as volatility deflated. If private-credit stress keeps leaking, the Fed may blink, but timing > narrative right now.
On crypto: ~$2B in leverage was flushed in 24h, ~400K accounts liquidated, and ETFs saw -$903M net out (second-worst day since launch). We’re ~30% off the October high, tracking the ugliest Q4 since 2018. Watch the “exhaustion” zones others are watching: ~$84K (IBIT average cost) and ~$73K (MicroStrategy avg). Those are magnets… and potential trapdoors.
MICROSTRATEGY WATCH
Separate from BTC price, MSCI may boot MicroStrategy from equity indices in January if it deems “mostly holds crypto” out-of-scope. JPM thinks passive funds could be forced to unload $2.8B of MSTR (and up to $11.6B if other providers follow). MSTR’s premium to its BTC stack has compressed from ~2.7% → ~0.9% and shares are down ~40% MoM. If index eviction hits, volumes/liquidity shrink and “issue stock, buy more BTC” gets a lot harder—the whole flywheel.
BIG WHALE BLINKS
Arkham flagged a legacy whale (widely linked to Owen G.) moving coins to Kraken and exiting ≈$1.3B. He started buying 2011 at single digits, rode a $1B top, a $209M valley in 2022, back to ~$1.4B this year, and finally tapped out. Is that “smart money sees doom,” or “I turned $5 BTC into a billion—time to live”? Could be both. Either way, it dents vibes.
POLICY PULSE
With the Senate mulling a market-structure bill (needs 60 votes), the crypto lobby is also pressing for Executive-branch guidance now:
Staking/mining taxed when sold, not when earned
Bridging/wrapping treated as non-taxable events
$600 de minimis for everyday use
Safe harbor for open-source protocol devs while rules finalize
Related: a live debate is brewing on paying federal taxes in BTC (Rep. Warren Davidson’s idea) without triggering cap gains—Paul’s writing the “no” case, I’ll give the “yes” response. Stay tuned.
LISTENER MAILBAG
“Go Cosmos!” Yep. After our Argentina live show: Cosmos keeps being the quiet infrastructure winner (SDK + IBC), even as timelines obsess over ETH/SOL/BTC.
“What if Satoshi = Epstein?” No. Also: even if Satoshi were anyone controversial, Bitcoin’s 16-year, open-source, decentralized track record stands. My running theory remains Hal Finney; timing of the 2014 email + his passing lines up better than the rumor mill.
Inflation math from Jason: The $69K 2021 BTC ATH is ~$80–83K in 2025 dollars. So today’s $80K–$90K isn’t far off an inflation-adjusted retest. Simple, powerful point almost no KOLs make.
Argentina aid correction: It wasn’t $200M—it was $20B. Thanks, Paul.
AI grief tech: Emerson notes that regulating it likely leans on religious ethics more than secular harm standards. Interesting angle—drop more in comments and I’ll read it on air.
MY TAKE
We’ve been calling for a grim holiday spend and a sentiment break. We just got an early taste. Could the Fed pivot save the tape? Maybe. But path matters: deleveraging first, narratives later. For crypto, I’m treating $84K / $73K as the key stress points. If we slice through, I’ll assume the base case shifts to a long, shallow bear into 2026. If we hold and reverse, then this was a bear trap and we trade back to six figures. Tactically, I’m DCA-ing small (I said $50/week) and keeping powder for capitulation wicks. Emotionally? Remember: RSI and Fear/Greed are where bottoms get built, not tops. Manage risk. Breathe.
PRICES (as of 9:47 a.m. ET)
Fear & Greed: 11 (extreme fear)
BTC RSI (daily): ~36 (oversold zone)
Bitcoin (BTC): $84,507 (24h: -4.2%) — Mkt cap $1.60T
Ethereum (ETH): $2,751 (24h: -8.2%) — Mkt cap $332B
XRP: $1.94 (24h: -8.4%)
BNB: $823 (24h: -8.0%)
Solana (SOL): $128 (24h: -8.8%)
TRON (TRX): $0.277 (24h: -2.0%)
Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.14 (24h: -11.5%)
Cardano (ADA): $0.409 (24h: -11.7%)
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.90T (24h: -6.8%)
BTC: $1.60T
ETH: $332B
Happy HODLing, Everyone.
Some Hope
6 months ago, Raoul Pal said we are in an elongated business/debt cycle and that bitcoin would climb higher and then we would see a -35% drawdown and “everyone will be sure that it is over… and it won’t be over.”
You need to watch this again.
References & Affiliates
😨 Crypto Sentiment Hits Extreme Fear Amid $2.7 Trillion S&P 500 Wipeout
📉 Crypto Liquidations Surge as Bitcoin Rout Deepens
🏦 ‘Strategy’ Sheds Billions and Gets Removed From Stock Indices: JPMorgan
💰 Bitcoin Billionaire Dumps Entire $1.3 Billion BTC Stash After 14 Years: Arkham
🏛️ Crypto Firms Push President Trump to Direct Agencies on Stalled Regulatory Guidance
Self-Custody Crypto Roth IRA: athenic.xyz
Use Code DCN for $30 off: DCN
Where to Find DCN:
🌐 DailyCryptoNews.net
🐦 twitter.com/DCNDailyCrypto
📈 Trader Cobb on X
🌿 The Grow Me Co
Disclaimer
This content is not financial, legal, or tax advice. It reflects personal opinions for educational and entertainment purposes only.
I am not a financial advisor or expert, and I do not guarantee any specific outcome.
Always do your own research before making any investment or financial decisions.
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