Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle: Are We Near the Top, or Is This Just the Beginning?
It’s 7:30 at night, I’ve got this blinding studio light in my face, and I’ve just finished watching another episode from CryptoCurrently — one of the few YouTube channels that actually looks at the macro picture the way I do.
If you listen to my podcast, you know I often reference this creator. Not because I want you to stop listening to Daily Crypto News and head over there, but because this person validates a lot of what I’ve been saying for years. They back it up with data, moving averages, and macro context — instead of hype and hopium.
The 200-Week Moving Average and Why It Matters
In the video, CryptoCurrently dives into the 200-week moving average — one of the most reliable long-term indicators for Bitcoin and other assets. Whether it’s Bitcoin, the S&P 500, or even gold, prices tend to stretch too far above this average during euphoria and fall back during corrections.
Right now, Bitcoin is trading about 150% above that line — not yet overheated, but definitely entering the “expensive” territory. History shows that when BTC reaches this level, caution pays off.
I’ve said it before: we’re not seeing a $350,000 Bitcoin this cycle. We want that, sure, but the numbers don’t add up. Let’s be real about what the next few months look like.
The Reality of the Four-Year Cycle
Here’s where me and CryptoCurrently part ways a bit. They’re skeptical of the classic four-year halving cycle. I still believe it matters — maybe less with each iteration, but it’s far from dead.
Every halving pushes the top of the market a bit later, softens volatility, and stretches the cycle. As the market cap grows, the moves become harder to make. That’s not bearish — that’s maturity.
Think of it this way:
In 2013, Bitcoin ran from $1,000 to $20,000.
In 2021, it went from $20,000 to $70,000.
If history rhymes, not repeats, then $140K–$180K feels like the rational top range for this cycle.
Could it go higher? Sure. But a $200K Bitcoin requires roughly $1.5 trillion in new capital — and that’s not pocket change.
The Indicators Still Say “We’re Not Done”
When I look at the macro indicators — RSI, Fear and Greed Index, M2 Money Supply, global liquidity, and even on-chain sentiment — none of them scream “cycle top.”
RSI isn’t overbought.
Fear and Greed is neutral.
Liquidity is rising.
We’re not in a blow-off phase yet.
That tells me this bull run still has room. Maybe not to the moon — but definitely up.
How to Play It: Cash, Patience, and Perspective
One thing I liked in CryptoCurrently’s approach: they keep 30% cash on the sidelines. That’s smart. You can’t time tops perfectly, but you can position yourself to buy the dip or take profits when things get overheated.
Ask yourself:
If Bitcoin drops to $60K, do you have cash ready to deploy?
Are you taking profits when you’re up 3x, 5x, 10x — or waiting for “the moon”?
It’s not about being bearish; it’s about being disciplined. A strategy beats emotion every time.
Altcoins: The Silent Melt-Your-Face Potential
Every cycle, we underestimate the alts. Remember Solana, Doge, or BNB last time? They didn’t just rise — they exploded. Bitcoin and Ethereum moved steadily, but alts melted faces.
This cycle won’t be any different. When Bitcoin stabilizes, liquidity flows into alts. Expect surprises — and be ready to take advantage.
The Final Word: Keep It Real
If this really is the top of the four-year cycle, we’ll know soon enough. But right now, nothing in the data says we’re done.
The markets aren’t overheated.
The liquidity backdrop is solid.
And the macro narrative — rate cuts, soft spending, slower jobs — still supports risk assets.
Maybe Bitcoin hits $130K, $140K, even $150K.
Maybe it cools off before the holidays.
Either way, stay alert, take profits when it makes sense, and keep cash ready for when fear returns.
Because when it does — that’s when you build wealth.
Stay grounded. Stay liquid. And for the love of Satoshi, take some profits.
