I went live from the car this morning—no full podcast because I had to be across town early and clock in at 9:30 on non-DCN work. “We are not going to have a podcast… we might put this into a podcast form.” Here’s the concise rundown, with expanded context where it matters.
Macro Watch: Fed Decision Day
“Mr. Jerome Powell comes out and says we’re going to get another rate cut… it’s going to be 25 bips.”
Markets look priced for something modest. I noted Bitcoin drifting lower into the announcement, trading in a narrow channel: “112,800 to 113,200.” If the cut is routine, expect chop and a relief bid; only a surprise magnitude (50–75 bps) would shock risk assets.
My Take
A standard cut is already in the tape. No fireworks unless Powell deviates from script.
Consumer Protection: Michigan Targets Bitcoin ATMs
“Michigan… cracking down on Bitcoin ATMs because of fraud,” especially scams aimed at seniors (fake tax threats, utility shutoffs, etc.). I referenced The Beekeeper to underline the rage many feel when the elderly are targeted: “It was one of the most disgusting things… these guys should get their ass kicked.”
Context
Unhosted, no-KYC kiosks can be weaponized by scammers who coach victims to feed cash and transmit irreversible on-chain value. States respond by tightening rules, licensing, and surveillance around kiosks.
My Take
I hate the scams—and I get why regulators are reacting—but shuttering ATMs isn’t a silver bullet. Better KYC, smarter fraud-interdiction, and active public-education beats blanket bans.
Politics & Money: Trump-Adjacent Crypto Revenues
“Trump crypto holdings, crypto-adjacent companies… have taken in around $800 million in revenue.” The number raised eyebrows and fed the broader corruption narrative I’ve been covering: “You heard my rant yesterday… collusion, corruption in all areas of government.”
Context
The point isn’t partisan; it’s structural. Politicians and proximity capital flows often blur the lines between policy and profit.
My Take
If leaders wanted conflicts fixed, they’d fix them. Posturing ≠ policy.
Crime & “Turning Off the Water”: A Policing Analogy
“If somebody actually gave a [care] about crime… you could put two Guardsmen on every corner… like turning off the water to fix a leak.”
The argument: emergency presence buys time for city leadership to work root causes—housing, poverty, mental health, illegal guns—without pretending the status quo is acceptable.
My Take
Not crypto, but markets price social stability. Real leadership beats optics.
Western Union & Solana: Rails That Finally Fit
“It looks like Western Union is choosing Solana for the stablecoin, which makes sense.” Low fees and throughput match remittance needs. I also noted: “They should have done [this] 10 years ago… but we have regulatory approval now that is going to make it more favorable.”
Context
High-volume, low-value corridors live or die on spread and latency. If incumbents actually pass savings on, this dents the predatory fee model I’ve criticized.
My Take
Solana is the pragmatic pick for remittances today. Watch execution—and whether savings reach users.
ETFs & Market Structure: Temper Expectations
“Solana ETF draws 69.5 million on debut…” but I cautioned against assuming instant moonshots: “We didn’t see Ethereum move at all [on ETF],” while Bitcoin’s ETF altered holder mix and dampened volatility more than it sparked a one-way rally.
My Take
ETFs can add resilience more than rocket fuel. The exception I floated: “If Litecoin gets that ETF… smaller market cap means inflows bite harder.”
Listener Questions
“How can crypto be affected by Trump and Xi’s meeting, you think?”
Quote: “Optimistic caution… if the deal is beneficial… we release some tension.”
Answer: I expect a “win-win-lose-lose”—neither side gets everything. That’s not bearish; it’s removal of worst-case tails (like 100% tariffs). Net effect: mildly supportive risk tone, not a face-ripper rally.
“ETF approvals?”
Quote: “We don’t got any ETF approvals… Solana ETF draws 69.5 million on debut.”
Answer: Treat new non-BTC ETFs as plumbing upgrades—not guaranteed price catapults. The bigger story is who accumulates and how that changes market behavior during shocks.
My Takes (Pulled Directly From Today’s Live)
On the Fed cut: “We’re already priced in.”
On Western Union: “Money-gouging… finally doing a thing they should have done 10 years ago.”
On ATM fraud: “Disgusting… especially when it hits the elderly.”
On corruption: “If somebody wants to fix something, they can just fix it… posturing and peacocking is BS.”
On Trump–Xi: “Win-win-lose-lose… not much impact on crypto, but it removes the 100% tariff nuke.”
On ETFs: “Adds resilience more than fireworks. Litecoin would react more because of size.”
Crypto Prices
Bitcoin (BTC): ~$113.2K (range today: 112.8K–113.2K) — Market Cap: not stated in recording
Ethereum (ETH): Price not stated in recording — Market Cap: not stated in recording
Summary
Rate day likely brings a garden-variety cut—already discounted. Michigan is tightening on scam-prone Bitcoin ATMs; I’m pro-protection, anti-overreach. Trump-adjacent crypto revenue headlines add fuel to the broader corruption critique. Western Union picking Solana is the right rail for remittances—now prove fee relief. ETF hype should be tempered: they harden market structure more than they moon prices. U.S.–China optics matter, but a muddled truce is still a tail-risk release for risk assets.
