What’s up, everybody. It’s Matt.
Friday, October 10th, 2025.
Bitcoin’s falling, the market’s red, Twitter’s loud — and yes, President Trump just tweeted again.
Let’s talk about what’s really going on.
Trump’s 100% China Tariff Tweet Shakes the Market
Here’s the short version:
President Trump announced that China sent what he called an “extraordinarily hostile letter” to the world — and that the U.S. will impose a 100% tariff on China effective November 1st, 2025. He also said America will restrict exports of “critical software.”
That’s the tweet. That’s the spark.
Since then, the total crypto market cap has dropped around $400 billion. Bitcoin fell from roughly $121K to $113K, Ethereum to $3,848, and panic posts exploded across social media.
The reality: this is not a real market correction.
This is a tweet event.
“Fake Prices” and Oversold Signals
I know it’s easy to panic — but pull up the RSI, look at the charts:
Bitcoin is oversold.
This kind of drop doesn’t reflect the fundamentals of the market. It’s emotional, reactive, and based on incomplete policy info.
Right now, what you’re seeing isn’t price discovery.
It’s temporary fear pricing.
If Trump’s tweet turns into long-term trade policy, sure, we’ll reassess. But today? It’s noise. We’ve seen this movie before — tweets drop the number, then the number goes right back up.
You can call it a Black Swan, but it’s really a flash storm.
The Pattern: Tweet. Sell. Recover.
We’ve seen it since 2018 — trade war tweets, “China bans,” “tariffs imminent” — and every time:
Market freaks out.
Sellers shoot first, ask later.
Two days later, the number rebounds.
And I’d bet this weekend or early next week, you’ll see “Trump World Liberty Fund” or “America First Digital” or some other proxy tweeting about how they “stacked sats on the dip.” Wouldn’t surprise me if Don Jr., Jared, and Barron are over there hitting the buy button.
My Take
This drop isn’t real until the policy is real.
Until there’s confirmation from both governments — until actual export or tariff enforcement — these numbers are fictional panic pricing.
The real Bitcoin price remains around $120–125K, not $113K.
If we see escalation (both sides dig in, rare earth exports cut, and tariffs enacted), then we reprice the world.
Otherwise, this is a flash opportunity wrapped in fear.
The Fundamentals Haven’t Changed
Unemployment’s steady.
Liquidity’s strong.
No mass defaults, no systemic shocks.
That means no real reason for a new market baseline. Tariffs create headlines, not fundamental shifts — unless they escalate into sustained economic disruption.
Until then, the price is artificial — a panic markdown on an asset with long-term bid strength.
As I said live:
“The president of the United States tweeted some bullshit. Equity left because they wanted to shoot first and ask questions later. If everything smooths out, this is not the real price.”
What to Watch
You’ll see more volatility over the next few weeks — the usual tweet battles, tariff threats, denials, and reversals. Expect the market to swing violently while policy clarity takes shape.
If Trump reverses course or “renegotiates the best deal in history,” Bitcoin will snap back quickly — probably to $125K or higher.
If it escalates, we’ll find support around $105K before any real structural damage.
Either way, nothing in the RSI, Mayer Multiple (1.07), or Fear & Greed data says this market is overheated. In fact, they all scream oversold.
For the Newcomers
If this is your first time riding through a panic drop — breathe.
Every veteran has been here: you wake up, charts red, the president tweets, and the sky falls. Then two days later, we’re back to “number go up.”
Take it from me — I once aped into Coinbase and Robinhood IPOs at the top. I’ve watched 20% candles vanish before lunch. You learn to stop checking every tick and start checking your conviction.
Don’t panic. Don’t rage sell.
If you’re long-term, zoom out.
The Milk Analogy
Think of it like milk.
One day there’s an E. coli scare, headlines everywhere.
People stop buying milk, stores dump it cheap.
A few weeks later, scare’s over — prices back to normal.
That’s what this tariff tweet is:
a milk panic.
A false discount on something everyone will still need later.
Should You Buy the Dip?
If you have dry powder, maybe.
If you just bought at $120K, maybe.
If this is your first rodeo, tread carefully — but remember: oversold is opportunity.
My play? Wait for a real overreaction — a bloodier, wider macro panic — then swoop in like a meerkat on a grassy knoll. That’s when the best stacking happens.
Final Word
Bitcoin at $113K is not a new normal — it’s a temporary distortion caused by a tweet.
Tariffs don’t erase crypto fundamentals. They shake weak hands.
Stay calm.
Don’t overthink.
Don’t let headlines trade for you.
And as always —
Happy HODLing, everyone.
